The 2011 census provides a figure for the Vale of 49,781 households. According to the District Council, the Vale completed 2,082 dwellings between 1 April 2006 and 1 April 2011. So the starting point for the calculations should be 49,781 - 2,082 = 47,699.
The projected growth based on the "What Homes Where"toolkit is 8,721 homes from 2006 to 2029. This shows how the community might change over the next 20 years if past trends were to continue. In 2012, there were 3,333 households on the waiting list for affordable homes, albeit this includes aspirational changes, and only 1,202 of these households are in the categories who require housing. This is in line with the 40% target for affordable homes in the local plan.
Obviously the creation of the Enterprize Zone in 2011 should have some impact, but few jobs have been created so far and the economic slowdown must be taken into account. Many of new jobs may be for people who chose not to live in the Vale. In 2008 64.4% of jobs within the Vale were filled by Vale residents and 54.1% of Vale residents had jobs within the Vale. Swindon and Didcot also have large development targets and some of the population may chose to live there.
Our housing growth target for Wantage and Grove should be somewhere between 581 and 2,397 [show detail]
The Department for Communities and Local Government have released new household projection datawhich suggests that the previous growth forecasts were too high.
For the Vale of the White Horse as a whole they project growth from 2011 to 2021 of 7.78% to 53,656 homes.
Projecting this to 2029 (to be able to compare with the draft Local Plan) suggests 14% growth on the 2011
baseline figure of 49,781, providing a total requirement by that date of 56,756 households for the Vale.
This would be an increase of 6,975 which is about half of the current Plan for an increase of 13,294 homes.
The 2011 Census figures for Wantage and Grove recorded 7,635 households. A corresponding increase of 14% would result in only 1,069 homes being added by 2011. Since 489 new homes have been approved in major developments since 2011 (excluding Chain Hill) then only 580 more will be needed.
However, the draft Local Plan for the Vale calls for Wantage and Grove to provide 5,500 of the 13,294 new homes for the Vale.
If the area took the same proportion – rather than what is needed for itself – then this would come to 2,886 less 489 or 2,397
– as opposed to the 5,500 being planned.
So, Wantage and Grove needs between 581 and 2,397 more new homes by 2029 – not 5,500
The Planning Policy Team at the Vale disagree - see the letter [pdf]received from them.
Houses, Cars and People [show detail]
Based on the statistics in Paragraph 3.6 of Analysis of travel patterns of people living in new homes built between 2001 and 2007 in the Vale of White Horse, 721 households included in the survey included 1,667 people and 1,118 cars. So if they are building 5,500 new homes, this will include 12,716 people and 8,528 cars.
People driving to work [show detail]
Based on the statistics in Paragraphs 3.10-3.20 of
Analysis of travel patterns
of people living in new homes built between 2001 and 2007 in the Vale of White Horse, 721 households included in the survey included 1221 people in work of which 75% of those living in Wantage and Grove were driving to work. So of 5,500 new homes, that means 9,314 jobs and 6,986 people driving to work.
The highest proportion of residents from Wantage and Grove were travelling between 15 and 30km to work, mainly to Oxford, Abingdon and Didcot - so most probably along the A417 or the A338.
Jobs at Grove Technology Park and Monks Farm 8 March 2012 [show detail]
According to a Senior Planning officer: Our latest information is that more than 800 people work on Grove Technology Park.
In terms of the proposed mixed use strategic allocation site at Monks Farm, we do not have detailed projections as to the number of jobs likely to be created on the site at this stage. This will depend on the precise mix of employment uses on the site, and is something which would be determined through the master planning process.
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